The United States imports twice as much oil today than 40 years ago when domestic crude exports were banned. But Congress lifted the ban because “reality-averse politicians and their bases” prefer to believe shale production has returned America to greatness, according to contributor Art Berman, a petroleum geologist.

The reality, Berman argues, is somewhat different.

Every oil producer is losing money at the current prices, he says. But production companies in both conventional and shale formations have to produce at high rates to pay their debt. OPEC is cranking out production to maintain or gain market share.

“Everyone is acting rationally from their own perspective but from a high level, it looks like they have all lost their minds,” Berman says.