A broad area of low pressure in the northwestern Caribbean Sea is moving toward the west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph.

Cloudiness and showers associated with this low continue to show signs of organization and a tropical depression could form before the disturbance reaches the Yucatan peninsula on Thursday, according to the National Hurricane Center.

The weather system is forecast to move over the Gulf of Mexico after Thursday.

where upper-lever winds will likely be less favorable for development.

“Upper-level winds are forecast to be favorable for development of this system by the end of the week as it sits over the Southern Gulf of Mexico,” said WBRZ meteorologist Dave Nussbaum in his daily weather blog. “The question remains whether or not it develops into anything. If it doesn’t, according to the ECMWF model, then it is likely the system will continue moving to the west and into Mexico, but it will send some deep tropical moisture northward toward the Gulf Coast States and that will lead to a heavy rain event.”

“If it does develop,” added Nussbaum, “according to the GFS model, then we would have a tropical system in the Gulf. It is too early to make that call and to say how strong it will be. This model is showing the system moving northeast toward the Mississippi, Alabama, Florida area with some very heavy rain expected no matter how strong it will be. I will be closely watching this system for you!”

This system has a 60 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 48 hours and a 70 percent chance of becoming a tropical cyclone during the next 5 days, according to the National Hurricane Center.

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Tropical Storm Tracking Information