Gun violence in New Orleans increased in November, with 35 shooting incidents occurring over the course of the month. This was the most shootings in the city since July’s 48 and the third-highest monthly total for 2015 so far.
Gun violence particularly picked up toward the latter half of November after New Orleans experienced below-average levels of gun violence between the beginning of August and the middle of November. There were “only” 91 shootings in the 109 days between Aug. 2 and Nov. 18 (0.83 shootings per day average), but there were 20 shootings between Nov. 19 and Nov. 30 (1.67 shootings per day).
There were 11 murders in New Orleans in November. This includes the death of victims in a 2003 case and a 2013 case which were ruled as murders during the month. As of Nov. 30, New Orleans has experienced 145 murders so far this year.
NOLA Neighborhood Gun Violence Index
A breakdown of shooting incidents by neighborhood as of the end of November is below. An explanation of how this chart is compiled can be found here.
Gun violence in the 7th Ward, Little Woods and St. Roch has been down relative to the 2011 to present average over the previous 60 days. The Plum Orchard neighborhood, the Lower Garden District and French Quarter have all seen above average levels of gun violence over the past 60 and 180 days.
I noted in the October gun violence review that analysis of advanced metrics such as the Fatal Shooting Percentage and Firearm Discharge Reports suggested that both shootings and the percentage of shootings ending in a fatality would likely increase relative to October levels. Both of these factors came to be in November, as more shootings produced more murders over the course of the month.
It is difficult to project whether the increase in shootings that began at the end of November will continue through December. New Orleans is unlikely to beat or match 2014’s 150 murders, but the city could still combine a nearly 10 percent decrease in shootings with a single-digit rise in murders.
Gun violence remains a major problem in New Orleans, but the city appears to have sustained the 10 to 15 percent reduction in gun violence it achieved in 2013. The city’s current challenge, therefore, is finding ways to extend that reduction further.