As the National Weather Service puts it, there's a "flurry" of rumors about snow in the forecast for parts of south Louisiana on Sunday night and into Monday morning.
Will it happen? The simple answer: maybe. Computer models have swung back and forth in the past few days in predicting snow for parts of south Louisiana.
"It's too soon to say (with) any confidence what will actually happen," the National Weather Service's office in Slidell said in tweet.
As of late Tuesday here's the forecast from the NWS and a rundown of the key ingredients needed to produce snow:
-- A cold front will move through Wednesday night through Thursday, bringing a 90% chance of rain.
-- Thursday through Saturday, highs during the day in metro Baton Rouge will be in the 50s with lows in the 30s.
-- On Sunday night, another system is forecast to move through the area. But how it develops, when the cold air comes in, how much moisture is present and if that moisture overlaps with temperatures cold enough to support snow are key questions.
For now the NWS said it's including "the chance of winter precipitation /winter mix in the forecast for Monday morning, mainly in the early morning hours before daybreak" and "primarily for the southern (Mississippi) counties and the northernmost Southeast (Louisiana) parishes."
Hearing a "flurry" of rumors about snow in the forecast?What we know:❄️ We're in for a cool down this weekend❄️ A *few* scenarios result in at least a rain/snow mix for northern areas Sun night❄️ It's too soon to say w/ any confidence what will actually happen#lawx #mswx pic.twitter.com/0mJmxttrrH— NWS New Orleans (@NWSNewOrleans) January 6, 2021
One last caveat: "This forecast is highly uncertain and subject to change depending on how the models trend the next few days and depending on how the system develops this weekend."
The Baton Rouge area and the north shore of Lake Pontchartrain last recorded measurable snowfall in December 2017 with totals ranging from a couple of inches to a half-foot in some northern areas.
The most snow ever recorded in Baton Rouge was 12.5 inches in February 1895, according to state Climatologist Barry Keim.
(If you're interested, click here to see a great illustration via the National Weather Service office in Kansas City about why it's so hard to forecast uncommon weather events, like snow in Louisiana.)