Before then-Hurricane Barry made landfall Saturday afternoon, potentially catastrophic rainfall totals of 10, 15, 20 and 20-plus inches were in the forecasts for areas from Lafayette to New Orleans.
But by the end of Saturday, many of those locations saw no more than an inch or two of rain.
What caused that to happen?
Forecasters and meteorologists point to that same dry air that kept Barry a disorganized tropical system as the prime reason.
The dry air made its way far enough south into Louisiana and zapped Barry's torrential rains.
Why the forecast bust on rain so far today? Look at the deep tropical rains (yellows, oranges, reds) repeatedly develop offshore and fall apart as they move inland & encounter dry air. Nothing indicated the dry air impact would be THAT significant. #LAx #Barry pic.twitter.com/yAhwhZHM5B— Steve Caparotta, Ph.D. (@SteveWAFB) July 13, 2019
In the absence of major rainfall totals, you might also wonder to why area rivers' crest forecasts remain, in some cases, dangerously high. The answer there is that the threat of heavy rain isn't over.
Dry air (the same that held #Barry from blossoming into a potent 'cane), also made it difficult for the tropical air mass to penetrate inland through today. Models and guidance clearly did not handle this feature well per the initial 10-20" rain forecasts (2/4)— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) July 14, 2019
Because tropical rain bands, which are difficult to place geographically in a forecast, could still produce flash flooding. Depending on which river basins experience these bands, significant rises could occur but it is unlikely all rivers will climb into major flood stage (4/4)— Josh Eachus (@DrJoshWX) July 14, 2019
A reminder too that all of southeast Louisiana is under a flash flood watch until 7 p.m. Sunday.