While the 2018 midterms have an important impact on Capitol Hill, the implications for the 2020 elections — and the 2020 Census — are probably what many political pros are pondering today.
The governorships of the nation are now almost evenly split between the parties, but states which were vital to Donald Trump's win in the Electoral College in 2016 shifted in several cases to the Democrats. These included Michigan and Wisconsin, but the Democrats failed to alter the political dynamics of Florida or Ohio.
"If Trump runs in 2020, he will have friends in high places in these two states," writes Elaine Kamarck of The Brookings Institution.
Legislators are important at the national and state level, but governors typically have more of a political apparatus in their states, and thus Kamarck's comment. But she also noted the "governorships in some states are key to making sure that the House districts drawn after the 2020 census are not as gerrymandered as the ones drawn after the 2010 census."
No matter what voters in all those states with hotly contested elections in other states decide Tuesday, the larger political world will look …
Drawing district lines can protect incumbents or hurt one party's chances or the other. It's a vital political matter with the 2020 Census coming up, and new district lines being in effect typically for 10 years starting in the midterm election of 2022.
Even in deep-red states, holding a governorship can provide a chance to veto overly partisan district lines. Thus, the national Democrats are going to be looking at that dynamic when it comes time to support incumbent Gov. John Bel Edwards in Louisiana in next year's race.