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LSU quarterback Max Johnson (14) throws a pass in the second half of Auburn's 24-19 win over LSU, Saturday, October 2, 2021, at Tiger Stadium on the campus of LSU in Baton Rouge, La.

The LSU football team sits at 3-2 after Saturday's 24-19 loss to Auburn in Death Valley, and it's unclear where the Tigers' season is headed from here on out. 

LSU is 1-1 in SEC play with a difficult schedule coming up over the next six conference games. The only break the Tigers get is that undefeated Georgia isn't on the slate.

ESPN's Bill Connelly is an expert on the analytics side, and Brody Miller of The Athletic on Monday pointed out Connelly's win total probability percentages for LSU's remaining games. 

At the moment, a six-win season seems the most likely based on Connelly's projections.

  • 4 wins: 8%
  • 5 wins: 28%
  • 6 wins: 34%
  • 7 wins: 22%
  • 8 wins: 8%
  • 9 wins: 1%

LSU's remaining games on the schedule don't offer many breaks, with the next game coming on the road against an undefeated Kentucky squad at 6:30 p.m. on Saturday.

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10/9 - at Kentucky (5-0, 3-0 in the SEC)

10/16 - Florida (3-2, 1-2)

10/23 - at Ole Miss (3-1, 0-1)

11/6 - at Alabama (4-1, 1-0)

11/13 - Arkansas (4-1, 1-1)

11/20 - ULM (2-2)

11/27 - Texas A&M (3-2, 0-2)

Email Patrick Magee at or follow him on Twitter, @Patrick_Magee.